Climate Migration in the U.S.: The Search for Safer Ground

Climate migration is becoming a reality as rising seas, wildfires, droughts, and extreme weather increasingly threaten U.S. cities, forcing communities to relocate. Cities that once thrived are now facing existential threats, prompting significant shifts in migration patterns. The question is no longer just which cities are most at risk, but also where people are moving to seek safety from these environmental changes.

What Is Climate Migration and Its Causes?

Climate migration refers to the displacement of individuals and communities due to environmental conditions that make it impossible to continue living in their homes. Whether driven by rising seas inundating coastal cities or wildfires destroying entire towns, climate events are forcing people to seek safer ground.

Key factors driving climate migration include:

• Rising Sea Levels: Coastal cities like Miami and Charleston face regular flooding that disrupts lives and damages infrastructure.
• Extreme Weather Events: Hurricanes, floods, and heatwaves are becoming more intense, displacing residents in cities such as Houston.
• Water Scarcity: Prolonged droughts in the western U.S. threaten cities like Phoenix and Las Vegas, making their long-term viability uncertain.
• Wildfires: California’s wildfire seasons are increasingly destructive, forcing residents to flee from fire-prone areas like Los Angeles.

These factors are reshaping migration patterns, driving people from high-risk areas to safer, more resilient locations.

Who Is Most Affected by Climate Change?

Climate migration disproportionately affects vulnerable populations, particularly low-income communities and communities of color. These groups often live in the most at-risk areas—low-lying neighborhoods or fire-prone regions—and have fewer resources to recover or relocate. Industries such as real estate, agriculture, and tourism are also deeply affected. Property values in vulnerable regions are dropping as buyers avoid risky investments, and tourism-dependent areas face declining visitor numbers due to climate disruption.

New York City is vulnerable to flooding.

Which Cities Are Most Threatened by Climate Change?

As climate change accelerates, certain U.S. cities are becoming increasingly vulnerable to its impacts. These cities face existential threats that could force millions of people to relocate in the coming years:

• Miami, FL: Frequent flooding due to rising sea levels is disrupting life in Miami. Adaptation measures, such as elevating streets and installing pumps, are costly and temporary, leading many residents to relocate inland.
• New Orleans, LA: Despite investments in levees and flood control, the city remains at risk from hurricanes and land subsidence. Many residents have permanently relocated due to continued threats.
• Houston, TX: After being repeatedly battered by hurricanes, Houston struggles with flooding risks. Efforts to rebuild are ongoing, but many neighborhoods have seen a permanent exodus of residents.
• Phoenix, AZ: With water scarcity and extreme heat intensifying, Phoenix’s future is uncertain. Residents are opting to move to cooler, more water-secure areas as the situation worsens.
• Los Angeles, CA: Wildfires and drought are driving people out of Southern California. Despite efforts to protect communities, many residents are leaving the region to avoid future disasters.
• Charleston, SC: Charleston’s historic districts are under threat from chronic flooding. As the cost of adaptation rises, more residents are moving inland.
• New York City, NY: Coastal neighborhoods are still recovering from Superstorm Sandy. Despite efforts to fortify the city, many vulnerable residents are considering relocation due to the ongoing threat of future storms.

These cities represent just a few of the many places grappling with the harsh realities of climate change. Without swift action, their future—and the lives of millions—remains uncertain.

Where Are People Moving To?

As climate threats intensify, many Americans are seeking safer destinations with fewer environmental risks. While no place is completely immune to climate change, some cities offer more resilience due to geography, climate, and sustainability investments:

• Denver, CO: High elevation and a semi-arid climate protect Denver from rising seas and extreme weather. However, rising housing costs are challenging the city’s infrastructure.
• Minneapolis, MN: Minneapolis’s northern location and access to abundant freshwater make it appealing. The city’s stable climate shields it from extreme heat, drought, and hurricanes, while green infrastructure adds to its resilience.
• Burlington, VT: Known for its mild climate and focus on sustainability, Burlington is free from coastal flooding and wildfires, making it a haven for climate migrants.
• Portland, OR: Portland has largely been spared from direct impacts of wildfires, though surrounding areas are at risk. The city’s strong environmental focus and investments in renewable energy make it a desirable destination for those seeking refuge from harsher climate effects.
• Madison, WI: Located in the upper Midwest, Madison benefits from a stable climate and clean freshwater. The city’s focus on renewable energy and sustainability has positioned it as a climate-safe destination.

These cities are experiencing rising housing demand, straining their infrastructure and affordability. Yet, for those looking to avoid the worst impacts of climate change, they remain among the best places to seek refuge.

Climate Change is Causing Shifts in Economic and Social Landscapes

The movement of populations from high-risk areas to safer cities is reshaping the economic and social fabric of both the cities being left behind and those absorbing migrants. Cities like Miami and New Orleans are experiencing population declines, leading to economic downturns and reduced tax revenues, affecting public services. Conversely, cities like Denver and Minneapolis are seeing economic booms as new residents bring demand for housing and services, but also challenges with affordability and infrastructure.

Climate Migration Case Studies

• Miami, FL to Orlando, FL:
  Rising sea levels and flood risks are driving a steady migration from Miami to inland cities like Orlando and Tampa. Between 2019 and 2020, Miami-Dade County saw a net loss of 22,000 residents, many of whom sought safety from climate threats. However, the influx is straining Orlando’s infrastructure and driving up housing costs.
• New Orleans, LA to Houston, TX:
  Hurricane Katrina permanently displaced hundreds of thousands of New Orleans residents. By 2011, the city’s population was 29% lower than before the storm. Roughly 100,000 residents permanently resettled in Houston, which became a major hub for climate migrants. In the years following, Houston faced its own challenges after Hurricane Harvey in 2017, which caused 30,000 residents to leave the area due to repeated flooding risks.
• Paradise, CA to Chico, CA:
  The 2018 Camp Fire destroyed the town of Paradise, permanently displacing nearly 50,000 people. Many survivors relocated to nearby cities like Chico, seeking refuge from future wildfire threats. The migration has reshaped the local economy and strained resources in receiving communities.

What Are Cities Doing to Adapt to Climate Change?

Cities facing climate threats are investing heavily in resilience plans. New York City and Miami are leading with seawalls, storm surge barriers, and green infrastructure to mitigate the effects of rising seas and extreme weather. However, these efforts are expensive and may only provide temporary relief. At the federal level, programs like the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) offer some protection but may inadvertently encourage rebuilding in risky areas instead of supporting relocation to safer zones.

What the Future Holds

Climate migration is expected to accelerate, potentially displacing millions of Americans by 2100 due to rising seas, extreme weather, and resource scarcity. Coastal cities like Miami and New York City face particularly severe threats, while inland and northern cities like Denver and Minneapolis will continue to absorb climate migrants. Smart city initiatives and investments in renewable energy will be crucial in making cities more resilient to future climate impacts.

The impacts of climate migration are reshaping the U.S., forcing cities to adapt to a new reality. While some areas invest in fortifications, others are considering managed retreat. At the same time, safer cities are growing rapidly as they absorb climate migrants. The future depends on proactive planning, resilience investments, and a commitment to protecting vulnerable populations. The time to act is now—before climate migration becomes an even more disruptive force across the nation.

Photo Credit: Top: Sean Hannon/iStock. 9/19/19 – Stranded Cars on Interstate 10 in Houston Texas after Tropical Storm Imelda. Middle: edichenphoto/iStock. 8/14/19 – New York City as seen from Staten Island Ferry in New York Harbor.